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Projection Methodology
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Projection Methodology


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Projections for President, Senate, House, Governor Projections are made using the latest polls, using an average of the latest polls over the last 7 days from the latest published poll (using the release of the polling period as the date of the poll). If no polls exist within the last 7 days, then the latest poll available is used to project the race. If there are no polls at all, then the actual results from the last election cycle are used to project the race. Partison polls conducted by polling companies affilated with a particular political party are excluded from the polls. Legend colors represent the following margins in the polls: Tossup 0-1% Barely 1-4% Weak 5-9% Strong 10-14% Safe 15+% National Polls National polls are not included in the state projection formulas. National polls are averaged over the last 7 days. The change shown is from the previous day.

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